Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Greece

I'm an amateur at macroecon, but it would seem like it is in the interest of the entire EU to monetize some of Greece's debt rather than allowing it to default. A default would seriously muck up the balance sheets of the big European banks, who presumably would get bailed out, them being "too big to fail" and all. And devaluation of the Euro resulting from a monetary bail out would be good for the other countries who are in trouble. Of course, politically, it's easier for German leaders to sell a bail out of a German bank than to sell a bailout to the spendthrift Greeks themselves. And Germany doesn't want the Euro devalued.

This crisis makes me question the viability of the EU structure. Leaving fiscal policy to the member states, while monetary policy is controlled centrally, seems like a recipe for disaster. Greece is to the EU what California is to the US, only worse, because the different cultures and language make Greece even less sympathetic to other Europeans than Californians are to other Americans.

I'm sure the European elites were hoping to centralize fiscal policy eventually, but it's looking like the problems caused by divergent fiscal policies might break up the EU monetary union instead.

My family has a lot of assets in Greece, and we frequently visit, so I hope that things there don't get too out of hand. A return to the Drachma would be wonderful for us.

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